Here are my predictions for how the Oscars will be awarded in the ceremony this Sunday, March 2. These predictions are based on my findings reported in the four previous posts, Initial Analysis, Special Interest Ratings and Rankings, General Interest Ratings and Rankings, and Overall Ranking, (see those posts for details). But I also recognize two important facts – one is that my analysis of movie quality is obviously incomplete since I haven’t seen any of the 35 movies. And second, is that there are many other factors that go into the Academy member’s votes, including personal feelings and political pressures. Since I am not a member of the Academy, nor really, a major player in the industry, I do not fully understand the personalities and politics involved.
Nevertheless, my track record over the last seven years hasn’t been too bad – significantly better than chance:
2024: 17/23 (73%)
2023: 11/23 (48%)
2022: 10/23 (43%)
2021: 14/23 (61%)
2020: 8/24 (33%) – a bad year for me
2019: 15/24 (63%)
2018: 16/24 (67%)
For an overall average of 55%. (Random chance would yield a little less than 20%).
Those of us who make these predictions, and have the stupidity to publish them, are particularly flummoxed this year all because of the fall of the Oscar darling, Emilia Perez. The film, from France, received thirteen nominations and I gave it the highest OQI this year, of 21 points. The Academy loved this film. And, normally, such outsized recognition would provide momentum to win most of the categories it was nominated in. But then old social media posts of its lead transgender star, Karla Sofia Gascon, reflecting politically incorrect views, erupted across the internet. So now, we are in a situation where both audience and critical ratings place Emilia Perez at the very bottom of the pile. The question plaguing anyone making Oscar predictions this year is whether Academy members go with their original inclinations when they nominated the film for almost everything, or will they adopt a more “politically correct” position and not recognize the film? No-one knows for sure.
And there is a real problem of defining exactly what is now “politically correct” this year. Is recognizing and rewarding a film starring and about transgender identity more important than punishing suspect comments? I’m not certain which way this is going to go but, in order to make my predictions, I had to make a decision. So I decided to think that Emilia Perez has lost its luster and the voters will be looking to reward other films.
Here is my list of predictions and below that are my explanations.
Oscar Shorts
I don’t pay much attention to these three categories only because I have limited time and resources and viewing these 15 nominees is often very difficult. So I make my predictions based, more or less, on the titles, the subject matter, and what limited buzz I’ve been able to read.
Documentary Short Film: Death by Numbers
Animated Short Film: Magic Candles
Live Action Short Film: A Lien
Special Interest Categories
Animated Feature Film: The Wild Robot
Both The Wild Robot and Flow received more than one nomination and multiple nominations is always a boosting factor. And both movies tied for third on my combined ranking, with high opinions from both viewers and critics. But The Wild Robot received two additional nominations for Sound and Original Score, both popular categories, while Flow scored its second nomination in International Feature, a less popular recognition. I’m thinking the Academy will reward the visual and aural stimulator in this category.
Documentary Feature: No Other Land
The Academy likes to make political statements in this category. And it doesn’t hurt that it ranks second out of all 35 of this year’s movies.
International Feature Film: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Our number one rated film, of all 35 of this year’s nominees, it was also nominated for Best Picture and Leading Actress (Fernanda Torres). Of course, if Emilia Perez is actually back in the race, then it will likely win this category.
Minor Categories: Sound & Music
Original Song: “Like a Bird” (Sing Sing)
I usually get this one wrong, but I guessed right last year with Billie Eilish and “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie). Like Barbie, Emilia Perez has two songs in the race this year, and so, if the film is back as a contender, it has a strong possibility of winning this race; but I’m assuming it isn’t. For some reason the Elton John:Never Too Late film, and song, placed near the bottom on all three rating scales as did The Six Triple Eight. That leaves “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing.
Original Score: Wicked
Last year’s Oscar darling, Oppenheimer, won the musical score Oscar like I predicted, and Emilia Perez is the likely winner, if it is actually still in the running. Since I’m assuming it isn’t, then the decision becomes very difficult. The Wild Robot is my highest rated film in this category, but Wicked is a musical with strong audience appeal (although not so much with critics). I’m picking the musical because, well, it’s supposed to be about the music, right?
Sound: Dune: Part Two
Last year the unique use of sound in The Zone of Interest won it the Oscar, over my pick of Oppenheimer. This year, it is a very tight race, but I think the sci-fi spectacle Dune is the best guess. Audiences loved the film and it comes in second to The Wild Robot, which maybe isn’t as well known. Besides, this award usually goes to a war movie or a science fiction spectacle, not an animated feature.
Minor Categories: Production Values
Makeup and Hairstyling: Wicked
None of the candidates score really high on my rankings, but the highest rated film and the one that has outstanding visual looks to it, would have to be Wicked.
Costume Design: Wicked
I think Costumes will also go to Wicked for pretty much the same reason. Conclave is a possibility, but neither audiences nor critics were as enamored with that film as the Academy was.
Production Design: Dune: Part Two
Last year’s deserved winner, Poor Things, used bizarre twists on familiar settings. The Dune film likely does similar things this year.
Minor Categories: Cinematic Arts
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
This one almost always goes to a science fiction/action film of some kind. But if you can also give the award to a film that is generally liked than why not, and this year that would be the Dune sequel film which is rated by all three groups higher than the others.
Cinematography: The Brutalist
More than Visual Effects which has a rather narrow focus, cinematography is one of the arts and sciences that is important across all movies. It is an art shared only with television, and to some degree, photography. Therefore, despite the fact that the Dune movie has a higher rating than the other candidates, I think the Academy will give this one to the more “serious” film, The Brutalist.
Film Editing: Anora
Editing is another category that is particularly important in cinema, and yes, somewhat in television. And the highest rated film in this category is Anora. Either The Brutalist or Conclave are likely alternatives, but they don’t rate as well with our three groups.
Major Categories: The Story Tellers
Supporting Actor: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
It was easy to pick Robert Downey Jr. last year in this category because of the Oppenheimer juggernaut. The Academy, made up mostly of actors, likes movies where there are multiple acting nominations from the same movie – I call that the ensemble effect. This year there are seven movies with ensemble nominations. So for Supporting Actor, the only thing that factor does is eliminate Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. We can also eliminate Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice if for no other reason than people are simply tired of hearing about Donald Trump. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) may have done good work, but he is considered very difficult to work with and I suspect fellow actors might not want to reward him quite yet. So it is a contest between Yura Borisov (Anora) and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist). This is the first Oscar nomination for both men, so they are equal there. Pearce, though, has a more developed Hollywood history and therefore connections, and Borisov is from Russia so…
Supporting Actress: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
All five of the Supporting Actress nominees are also part of an ensemble team. I’ve always liked Zoe Saldana, but there is that Emilia Perez problem. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) is cinematic icon and this is her first Oscar nomination. Ariana Grande (Wicked) is more known for her singing and this is also her first nomination. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), is young, up and coming, and this is her first nomination. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) is a more seasoned actress and this is her second nomination and The Brutalist has the highest ranking of all five films. So…
Leading Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
As much as I’m starting to like Colman Domingo, I think the ensemble effect kicks him out of the running. And for the same reasons suggested for Jeremy Strong, I don’t believe the Academy is going to want to give The Apprentice any kind of boost. This is Adrien Brody’s (The Brutalist) second nomination after winning the Oscar for his performance in The Pianist more than 20 years ago. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) is an accomplished actor who was previously nominated for Schindler’s List and The English Patient back in the 90s. And Timothy Chalamet plays Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. Chalamet is a younger face, but also received a prior nomination for Call Me By Your Name and is also a leading actor in the two Dune movies. Do we go with the fresh face or the old-timers? The Brutalist ends up being our highest rated movie of these three and so I’m going with Brody.
Leading Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)
This is always my favorite category. Last year I correctly predicted one of my favorite actresses, Emma Stone (Poor Things) would win and she did. The year before I guessed the winner, Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once). This year the contest is not easy at all. There is the Emilia Perez problem for Karla Sofia Gascon. I’m Still Here, from Brazil, is our highest rated movie this year and that should give Fernanda Torres a huge boost. But this is her first nomination and Hollywood usually prefers to reward their own. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) received two nominations five years ago for Harriet and she might be ready for a Leading Actress Oscar, but Wicked is a musical and didn’t do well with critics, both factors hurting that movie, and her chances. Anora is a domestic film and has done well, especially with critics so, although this is Mikey Madison’s first nomination, she has a very good chance. But then there is Demi Moore in The Substance. Although her movie vehicle isn’t doing all that great among either critics or the viewing public, she is a Hollywood veteran, her character’s story mirrors both hers and many other Hollywood women. This may be her first nomination, but I suspect this is a case where the Hollywood network will give her the win.
Major Categories: The Story and Tone
Adapted Screenplay: A Complete Unknown
My pick last year, Barbie, lost to a surprise, American Fiction. That reflects the fact that this category is especially difficult to predict. Sing Sing is our highest rated movie with Conclave next and Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown coming in fourth and fifth – yes, I’m ignoring Emilia Perez. But Sing Sing didn’t do well in the nominations or with the critics, so I think that kicks that one out. Critics loved Nickel Boys but the Academy went bonkers over Conclave. But both audiences and the Academy rated A Complete Unknown fairly well so I’m thinking they go with the public on this one.
Original Screenplay: Anora
I admit that I don’t seem to have a huge amount of luck in either of the writing categories. Last year’s winner, Anatomy of a Fall, was my second choice. The Substance seems much overrated by the Academy compared to the viewing public and the critics, so I think it is in need of a realignment. September 5 falls somewhat in the middle on everyone’s ratings while A Real Pain was a movie critics loved, audiences not so much, and the academy may have undervalued. But the remaining two movies weren’t loved by the public but were well rewarded by critics and the Academy. Anora ended up with a higher rating than The Brutalist, so I’m going with that one!
Director: Sean Baker (Anora)
Last year I picked Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) simply because the film was the front runner on everything else and the director is probably the single most important person in making a movie successful. So a good indicator of a worthy director is how many other categories has his/her movie won? My top three movies predicted so far are The Brutalist, Wicked, and Dune: Part Two. But of those three, only the director for The Brutalist, Brady Corbet, was nominated. I will talk about him below.
Although Demi Moore (The Substance) might be a good pick for leading actress, I’m not sure it’s because of her director, Coraline Fargeat. This is her first nomination and she may need to earn her wings with some more good work.
James Mangold directed A Complete Unknown which was well regarded by the Academy and the public, but only so much by the critics. This is Mangold’s first nomination for director, although he did receive a writing nomination for Logan and a Best Picture (producer) nomination for Ford v Ferrari. These are important credentials, but maybe not convincing.
And so what about Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). His film is also a success and he has received two other nominations, for writing and producing, this movie. But he is young and still has wings to earn.
Anora was directed by Sean Baker and this film is pretty much his since he also received nominations for Editing, Original Screenplay, and Best Picture (because he is also a producer). His film is a success with the academy and critics, although audiences didn’t find it quite as rewarding. He has no other Oscar credentials, but has long experience directing, editing, writing and producing for films like Tangerine and The Florida Project. I’m going to give this one to Baker in part because of the higher rating of his film and also because of his history.
Major Categories: The Big Picture
Best Picture: The Brutalist
It was pretty easy last year to pick the Best Picture winner because it was the Oscar darling with a huge number of nominations. This year that same logic would have us picking Emilia Perez. But, assuming that one is out of the race then the logic suggests a pretty tight battle between The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, Conclave, Anora, and possibly The Substance.
Of those six, three of them have larger numbers of “major” nominations (writing, directing, and acting) which seems to drive the Academy in choosing this category. Those would be Anora, The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown. Of those, the first two rate significantly higher than the third one on my rating scale (5, 10, & 25) respectively. Furthermore critics didn’t like the Bob Dylan biopic near as much as the other two and the Academy frequently sides with the critics on this category.
So that brings it down to Anora or The Brutalist. Both films seem competitive in all the major categories, but The Brutalist had three acting nominations. Most of the Academy voters are actors and they tend to like “ensemble” movies where multiple actors turn in outstanding performances.
So The Brutalist wins Best Picture!
Those are my picks. We will find out how well I did Sunday night and next week I will write a recap and fess up to my poor judgment calls.